Shifting Baselines Syndrome: How our Generational Amnesia Masks the True State of Things
The world is always changing. Have you ever noticed how certain environmental changes, such as the overfishing of the oceans or the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, can seem normal or insignificant to us over time? This phenomenon, known as the shifting baselines syndrome, has a profound impact on our perception of the world around us. People’s perceptions of what is ‘normal’ or ‘acceptable’ change over time, frequently as a result of slow, gradual change. We become accustomed to certain behaviours or conditions to the point where we no longer notice their negative effects or perceive them as significant. While we, as a society, get used to a new norm, the negative impact of our current actions affects future generations. Shifting baselines clouds our perspective and we lose our perception of change with each generation redefining what is the baseline or ‘normal’.
The question is: what is ‘normal’, really? Usually, it is a temporary condition, but often our perception is that the status quo will last forever. We don’t notice the small, incremental changes that over time shift “normality” into a new form. And when we talk about the new normal, it is usually something radical that we expect to change overnight. During Covid-19, the new normal was on everyone’s lips — how will society change and how can we actively influence that direction in a positive way? But every day, the world around us and inside us changes, in ever-so-subtle ways. By overlooking these changes and their role in the bigger picture, we get a distorted perception of the present, which shapes our policies and our future.
“The shifting baselines syndrome of gradually and unconsciously changing our perception risks slowly but surely erasing the historical context that has come before.”
While COVID-19 brought large-scale changes, especially to our economies and ways of living and working, we have reverted to many of the old habits from before the pandemic. Our baseline for many things, however, has shifted to the time right before the pandemic, and has become the ‘old’ normal. From working in an office to shaking hands, little by little, the behaviours temporarily suspended, have come back. It’s worth noting that these massive changes, like the ones brought about by COVID, have the ability to turn that ‘present’ into a status quo without really questioning if anything should be changed about that given present. The idea that extreme disruptions to the status quo can end up reinforcing it, even if it had negative aspects, is a common theme in sociological and political thought. This concept is known as “reactionary politics” or “reactionary revolution” which refers to the idea that when a society experiences a significant disruption, such as a revolution or crisis, the response to that disruption can lead to a reinforcement of the pre-existing power structures and status quo, rather than a true change.
The shifting baselines syndrome of gradually and unconsciously changing our perception risks slowly but surely erasing the historical context that has come before. When the starting line is always moving, we end up not seeing the changes, good or bad, that have happened. We also run the risk of losing the battle for what we want to save in the future. We always expect future generations to live in better circumstances than us, which has led us to take more than was ours for decades. We don’t know future people, their living conditions, needs, and desire, so why should we care?
Why Our Perception of ‘Normal’ Keeps Changing
“Shifting baselines” was coined by landscape architect Ian McHarg in his 1969 book “Design With Nature”.[1] It describes how the landscape today is different from what it used to be in ancient times. Later, fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly wrote about this concept in a paper called “Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries”[2]. If go back to the original usage of the concept of shifting baselines, consider the state of the oceans today. Many fish populations have been severely depleted due to overfishing, yet this is often seen as normal and acceptable. This is because, over time, individuals have become accustomed to seeing smaller and smaller fish catches, and no longer perceive the previous levels of abundance as the norm.
Each subsequent generation suffers from a lack of experience and memories of what used to be accepted as the natural state of things — and their standards are lowered when compared to their predecessors.
While the concept of shifting baselines historically has had a strong emphasis on environmental and ecological change, we see it happening in other fields as well. As technology advances, people may come to expect certain levels of convenience and efficiency that were not possible in the past. Today, people don’t want to wait more than 2 seconds for a web page to load. 30 years ago, if you could log on to the World Wide Web, it was a wondrous place full of possibilities that you didn’t mind waiting for. You have a smartphone in your pocket that is more powerful than the computer NASA used for the Apollo 11 mission to the moon in 1969[3]. Isn’t that amazing? We should be in awe of the wonder of having a personal supercomputer that takes photos better than many cameras, enables you to instantly access a treasure trove full of often free information, and allows for instant connection with friends, family, and strangers across the globe.
Shifting baselines can also occur in social norms and values. For example, attitudes towards marriage, gender roles, and social justice issues may change over time, leading people to view the past differently from the present. For instance, despite immense efficiency improvements across all industries in the last 40 years, average weekly working hours fell faster from 1946–1979 than from 1980 to now. If average hours had continued to decline after 1980 in line with the initial post-war trend, the UK would have been on track to achieve a 30-hour week (equivalent to a 4-day week relative to 2016) by 2040.[4] We have come to accept that our working hours have settled at around 40 hours per week. Just as negative effects of climate change happen gradually, so do positive changes. Productivity has steadily risen over the last 40 years, which suggests that future generations may have a 30-hour workweek by 2040. However, because our current standard is a 40-hour workweek, we may not be aware of these incremental changes.
Shifting baselines syndrome is largely an intergenerational problem. The baseline you compare today to will probably be different if you were born as part of Gen X or Gen Z. We tend to idolise the past, especially the time when we come of age and find ourselves. People tend to remember the past more positively than it actually was, a phenomenon known as “rosy retrospection”[5]. Our personal baselines then often tend to compare everything back to the days, when things were better, the “good old days”. While shifting baselines doesn’t require you to necessarily ascribe a moral value to a period of time or condition, it’s just what you consider ‘normal’ or ‘to be expected, it’s still important to consider rosy retrospection in the context of shifting baselines syndrome, as our perception and memory of the past can greatly influence our understanding of the present and our expectations for the future. The way we remember and view the past can shape our priorities and actions in the present, and ultimately impact the trajectory of our future.
Treating the Shifting Baselines Syndrome
Awareness is the first step to overcoming the shifting baselines syndrome. This is especially true because more than ever, the problems we face in the future, be it climate change, loss of biodiversity, or pandemics, are shaped by the decisions we make today. It feels better to say “well we are doing better than two years ago” than look at a long-scale worsening of the situation. Rome wasn’t built in one day, but we need to realise what we are up against, in terms of climate change and biodiversity loss is unprecedented and could spiral even more out of control if we don’t do something drastic or don’t hold ourselves to higher standards.
For some of these problems, we do not have the luxury of making the wrong decisions. The shifting baselines syndrome makes it harder to comprehend the pace of climate change and the coronavirus. When it comes to climate change, time is running out. A big part of the explanation of why we have even gotten to this point is that we lack the imagination to see the future clearly because we have little or no past references to draw on. One perspective that can help to explain this is phenomenology, which emphasizes the subjective nature of experience and argues that the world only exists as it is experienced by individuals. This means that our understanding of the world is shaped by our experiences and the historical context in which we live. As a result, our understanding of what is normal or acceptable is constantly shifting, making it difficult to recognize changes over time and imagine a different future.
“To overcome this challenge, it is essential to take a proactive approach that empowers individuals, communities, and organizations to take action.”
Shifting baselines affect our understanding of different aspects of the world around us. For example, how has the way we understand and value biodiversity changed over time? How has our perception of a “healthy” ecosystem shifted? How has our understanding of what constitutes “normal” levels of pollution or resource consumption changed? Additionally, understanding the ways in which societal norms, values, and institutions change over time can help us to better understand why certain patterns of change are less visible to us. For example, the rise of consumerism and the influence of corporate interests can make it difficult for individuals to see the long-term environmental impacts of their actions.
From a phenomenological perspective, our understanding of the world is not only shaped by our experiences and historical context, but also by our language and culture, which shape our experience and understanding of the world. This helps us to better understand why certain patterns of change are less visible to us and how we can change our perspective on the world to be able to imagine a different future.
To protect the future, it is critical to realise that while history will often repeat itself or when times look tough, you need to understand what you compare the present and possible futures with. The shifting baselines syndrome poses a significant challenge for us as we try to navigate an ever-changing world. The problem is that it makes it difficult for us to comprehend the true state of things, as our understanding of what is normal or acceptable is constantly shifting. This can make it hard for us to recognize changes over time and imagine a different future.
To overcome this challenge, it is essential to take a proactive approach that empowers individuals, communities, and organizations to take action. This approach should focus on educating and raising awareness about the issues that threaten our future and the generations to come after us. By providing accurate and up-to-date information, we can help people to understand the true state of things and recognize the need for change. Additionally, by highlighting the possibilities and opportunities of a different future, we can inspire people to work towards a better future.
In some cases, our society moves at a rapid speed or changes very fast, where the baselines might be 5 years ago, whereas in other cases, it might take a century for a baseline to change. We need to foster a sense of personal responsibility and connection to the future, as well as promoting collective action and practices that can protect the future is crucial for securing a sustainable future.
Because then again, how can you expect to make the world a better place for current and future generations if you are unaware of the change around you?
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[1] Ian L. McHarg: “Design with Nature”, John Wiley & Sons Inc. (1969)
[2] Daniel Pauly: “Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries”, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, (1995)
[3] Adobe Acrobat Team: “Fast-forward — comparing a 1980s supercomputer to the modern smartphone”, Adobe Blog, (2022) https://bit.ly/3GTQMzO
[4] New Economics Foundation: “Average Weekly Hours Fell Faster Between 1946 and 1979 Than Post-1980”, (2019) https://bit.ly/3D4O5KO
[5] Michael Ross and Fiore Sicoly: “The Role of Rosy Retrospection in the Presentation of Personal Histories”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, (1957) https://bit.ly/3QXjnc3
