Bridging Foresight & Innovation to Create Meaningful Change
Change. It’s a word that holds immense power and potential. Most of us want to make a difference and create positive change in the world. But how do we go about it? How do we navigate the complexities of change and harness its transformative energy? The key lies in understanding how change works and how to create it. In this article, I reflect on the concept of futures-driven innovation and how it can help us create meaningful change.
To embark on the journey of change, we need to have a deep understanding of the present and an exploration of the future. We must combine our knowledge of how people and society currently works, basic human needs, and available data with an exploration of where we could be heading. This dual approach allows us to bridge the gap between the known and the unknown, paving the way for impactful change.
What we want to change may vary from person to person. Some may be passionate about fighting climate change, while others seek to increase organisational efficiency through AI. As much as we have the power to change the world around us, change is also happening outside our control. Having this realisation and understanding that change is an inherent part of life is crucial to start embracing uncertainty and seeing it as a source of opportunity as well.
Overcoming our natural resistance to change
As humans, we perceive the world through different lenses, leading to an incomplete view of reality. To make sense of this incomplete view, we construct narratives that fill in the gaps and provide us with a sense of control. We often trick ourselves into believing that we have control, as the illusion of control is more appealing to us than the reality of uncertainty. However, in a world that inherently uncertain and complex, the only constant is change.
While the future is often unimaginable from the vantage point of the present, we must still explore and imagine what could lie ahead. History cannot serve as our only map of the future because innovation and change drive progress.
The recent COVID-19 pandemic served as a powerful reminder of our resistance to change. Many of us felt uncomfortable during this period of disruption in our lives. And that’s actually completely natural, since our bodies are trying to protect us from change. The amygdala — part of the limbic system in the brain and responsible for threat detection — perceives change as a threat and releases stress hormones to protect us. This biological response explains why we resist even positive change, including initiatives or ideas that appear beneficial. But it’s also amazing to think of how fast most of us adapted to a new normal with masks and social distancing during COVID-19.
That’s largely because we learned to acknowledge the discomfort and uncertainty that accompanied change, which is what is needed to the overcoming both our collective and individual resistance. It would be great if we could make a plan from A to B. But reality is that we need to plan for our plans not going according to plan, allowing room for error, agility, and acknowledging the ever-present unknowns of life. Innovation teaches us that we need to experiment, test, and fail on the way to success. While anticipation as part of foresight, allow us to foresee and build resilience to respond to emerging futures. If we learn to combine the two, we move closer to creating the meaningful change we desire.
Why studying history and people is not enough
History is filled with examples of companies and individuals who resisted change and missed out on groundbreaking innovations. Blockbuster and Kodak, for instance, failed to adapt to changing market dynamics and were left behind while society moved forward. Even visionaries like Steve Jobs initially resisted ideas like the iPhone[1]. Imagine how different the world would be if they hadn’t embraced change and allowed innovation to shape their actions.
To create change, we must place humans front and center, adopting a user-centric approach. However, relying solely on the present moment and individual insights is insufficient. The wisdom of “the customer is always right” and “customers don’t know what they want” coexist because looking at people right now does not provide a complete understanding of their future needs. To create meaningful change, we must embrace a more balanced approach that incorporates futures-driven innovation.
Futures-driven innovation involves understanding not only people but also data, systems, and changes. It requires us to creatively imagine and explore possible futures. This approach allows us to prepare for what could happen and make more informed and long-term oriented decisions now. By studying the futures, we challenge our mental models and refresh our assumptions about the future, enabling us to overcome short-termism and envision alternative scenarios.
We live in a world where we need to prepare for multiple futures, because society develops in increasingly non-linear ways. Our decisions today shape the world of tomorrow, making it crucial to consider the broader implications of our actions. We need to take systems-thinking approach that helps us understand the interconnectedness of different factors and tackle problems on a wider scale. For instance, addressing rising sea levels requires more than building dams; it demands addressing broader climate change issues.
While the future is often unimaginable from the vantage point of the present, we must still explore and imagine what could lie ahead. History cannot serve as our only map of the future because innovation and change drive progress. Relying solely on history limits our imagination and inhibits our ability to create change. Realizing that the future may be vastly different from the past is the first step towards embracing and creating meaningful change.
Bridging futures and innovation
The connection between innovation and foresight is intuitive. By solving complex problems, seizing opportunities, and transforming ideas into reality, we can shape a better future. To do that, Futures-driven innovation offers several tools:
- Scenario planning helps create or test innovation concepts by envisioning different scenarios.
- Futuresstorming involves structured discussions about identifying change signals, change drivers, and barriers to change.
- Future user stories allow us to explore how people might react to different changes in their environment.
I also believe, we can learn someone valuable from the butterfly effect. It teaches us that small changes can compound to create significant transformations. We must learn to monitor and anticipate changes happening around us. It’s important to realize that we are not merely victims of change but active players who possess agency. Every decision we make, no matter how small, can potentially create a large impact and move us toward our preferred future.
To create meaningful change, we must seek try understand human behavior, develop our foresight skills, and adopt a futures-driven innovation approach. We should avoid solving tomorrow’s problems with today’s solutions and instead embrace uncertainty, think long-term, and boost our ability to imagine a different future.
Positive change requires us to embrace uncertainty, think beyond immediate gratification, and envision a future different from the present. Empathy, iteration, and co-creation are crucial components of this journey. By combining our understanding of the present with open exploration and speculation about the future, we can create a positive impact and shape a better world. The future is not set in stone, and it’s up to us to create the change we want to see.
